Statistics, systems and strategies for Bets and Bets
First of all , why this game?
In my opinion, the first game of the season are the best if you look for values. The majority will bet on the big favourite team, so the bookies will rise the prices for the big favourite and the odds go down, but usually the favourite teams will face a very motivated team (especially in front of their supporters) to have a good start in the new season.
Also, the teams relative values are not very well known on the start of the season. Anything may happen there and the best choice in this situation is to play against the favourite.
If you would like to see odds movements click “Odds movements for selected game”.
As we can see the odd for “Home win” is going down at this moment (the price are rising). Probably the market felt that the odds were to good. In my opinion they are too good yet and probably the odds will go up and down. The idea is to catch the best odd possible. Anyway the majority of regular players will bet not so close to the game start, usually on big favourite, so the odds will rise again soon.
Now, let-s go to the new GOALS section.
Select Aston Villa, then Manchester Utd. and the range for the ELO values (+ or -) 50 points. Also select “All season” in order to have more games taken into consideration.
On the graph you may see the minutes of the goals in the past similar games. As expected away team scored more. Especially for live betting pay attention to the last 30 minutes where the favourite scored much more. In the beginning of the periods the situation is almost equal.
In the right table will find the percent for home, draw, away, over, under (0.5,1.5,2.5) and for the correct scores. The percent are calculated for each 5 minutes.
Click on the “FT” column to order the percents for the correct score. As we can see in the similar games the most scores were 0-0,1-1,1-2.
Also we can notice that more games ended under 2.5 than over 2.5 contrary actual odds. We may try here something also.
If you would like to use this table on live betting of course the “odds view” would be more useful.
. Let-s go to UPCOMING, click “Odds refresh” and then click on the game “”Aston Villa - Manchester”.
On the lower left containers will adjust the parameters - ELO interval +/- 25 in order to take into consideration only the similar games in the past and check “Consider only selected league” in order to take into consideration only Premier League because the results will be more relevant.
Now, on the next container will see the results for the selected parameters: 26 games, 9 won by the home team, 12 won by the away team and 8 draws. At first sight we can see that backing home team had been profitable, almost 20%. Of course away team won the most games but 41.38% means around 2.40 in terms of odds. The odds offered are far behind and in my opinion is not worth at all
In the last picture we also can see that the results on the past similar games doesn-t match with the odds offered.
As I said, the bookies would like to take advantage using the fact that the majority will back Manchester United so will offer as lower price they can.
Of course here is needed more information and deeper analyses but at first sight it is worth to try something against Manchester United. Let-s say Aston Villa AH(+1.25) @ 1.55
I know that if you bet with value, finally, after few games, you will have profit so I will try Home Win with very good odds.
Please note: this is just an example. You have to make your own analyse and to bet accordingly.