You find a betting idea that makes sense. You test it, you check the numbers, and you start with small bets. The first weeks go well. Then you lose. And lose again. By Sunday evening you have lost seven bets in a row, and one thought comes into your head: it doesn’t work any more.
So you stop. Or you change the idea. Or you bet more to win the money back.
Here is the surprising part. Seven losses in a row usually do not mean anything is wrong. Even a good betting idea will do this to you — again and again.
This article explains why, in plain words, with one simple example. No maths degree needed.
1A Simple, Good Strategy
Let’s invent a strategy and keep it very simple:
You bet £10 every time. Always the same amount.
The odds are 2.30. So a winning bet gives you £13 profit.
You win 45 bets out of every 100. You lose the other 55.
Is this good? Let’s count. In 100 bets you win 45 times × £13 = £585. You lose 55 times × £10 = £550. At the end you are £35 ahead.
So yes — this is a winning strategy. Small, but real. Most people never find one this good.
But look at it again. You lose more bets than you win. 55 losses, 45 wins. Every week, you will see more red than green. That is normal, and it is the first thing to accept.
2What Really Happens When You Use It
We used a computer to play this strategy 20,000 times — like 20,000 different people using exactly the same idea. Same idea every time. Only the luck was different. Here is what those people lived through:
After 100 bets: almost 4 people in 10 were still losing money. With a winning strategy.
Losing streaks: about half of them had 7 or more losses in a row in their first 100 bets. Over 500 bets, 9 losses in a row was normal.
Bad periods: over 500 bets, a typical person dropped about £220 below their best moment before things got better again.
After 1,000 bets: even now, about 1 person in 6 was still behind.
Read the first line again. A winning strategy leaves almost 4 people in 10 losing money after 100 bets. Nothing went wrong for them. 100 bets is simply not enough to see the truth.
Think of it like the weather. One rainy week does not mean summer has ended. Seven losses in a row is just a rainy week.
3Why It Feels Like Something Is Wrong
Our brains love patterns. When we see five losses in a row, the brain says: “Something has changed!” When we see five wins in a row, it says: “I’m good at this!”
Most of the time, both are wrong. It is just luck going up and down.
What it feels like: “Seven losses in a row — my strategy is finished.”
What it really is: Something that happens to about half of all people using a good strategy, in their first 100 bets.
Toss a coin 100 times and you will see six or seven heads in a row somewhere. Nobody thinks the coin is broken. Your bets work the same way.
4The Other Trap: Winning Too Early
Luck can also fool you in the nice direction — and this one is more dangerous.
Imagine a bad strategy, one that slowly loses money over time. We tested that too. After 100 bets, about 1 person in 3 using it was in profit.
They feel clever. They bet bigger, because “it works.” And then the bad strategy does what bad strategies do — but now with bigger bets.
The simple lesson: after a few weeks, your profit or loss tells you very little. Do not celebrate too early. Do not panic too early either.
5Three Simple Rules
You do not need to understand statistics to protect yourself. You only need to decide a few things before you start — when you are calm.
Rule 1: Expect bad runs before they come
Before your first bet, tell yourself: “I will probably lose 7, 8, maybe 9 bets in a row at some point.” Write it down if it helps. When it happens, you will not be shocked. You were warned.
Rule 2: Pick a checking point and wait for it
Decide when you will judge your strategy — for example after 200 bets, or at the end of the season. Until then, don’t change it because of a bad week. A bad week is not a checking point. A good week isn’t either.
Rule 3: Bet small enough to stay calm
Ask yourself: “Could I lose 20 or 30 bets’ worth of money for a while and still feel fine?” If the answer is no, your bets are too big. Make them smaller. A strategy you give up in the middle of a bad run is worth nothing, however good it is.
Before you start: expect losing runs.
While you bet: don’t change anything until your checking point.
Always: bet amounts that let you sleep well.
6How Software Can Help
A good tool can show you the bad runs before you live through them. In CGMBet26, the Staking tab of the Backtest window takes your strategy’s own bets and plays them thousands of times, just like our example. It shows you the longest losing run to expect, how far your money might drop, and your real chance of being in profit.
The Bets Tracker keeps an honest record of every bet, so when your checking point arrives you look at real numbers — not at how you feel. And the Robustness tab checks whether your strategy’s good results were likely to be real, or just a lucky period.
But no software can feel the ninth loss for you. That part is still yours.
7The Short Version
Good strategies lose many times in a row. Bad strategies can win for a while. A few weeks of results don’t tell you which one you have.
Expect the bad runs. Wait for your checking point. Keep your bets small. That’s all.
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